Til Tuesday
Making a prediction, as if I possibly know
I just read David Frum’s No One Has an Alibi in the Atlantic, a reflection and a plea in advance of Tuesday’s election. It’s a great case for patriotic Americans voting for Harris. Frum was a Republican once, serving on George Bush’s staff. Frum’s case is summarized well in his article’s subheading:
Trump has told us his plans, so vote as if the country depends on you. It does.
I’m feeling déjà vu. I remember reading the same writer’s article in the same magazine, just before election day in 2016 (see: The Conservative Case for Voting for Clinton), and thinking—I was such a fool! And probably still am!—that Frum’s article would matter for that election. I pictured undecided voters, maybe classic Republicans who were uneasy about Trump, reading it and deciding to cast their votes for Hillary Clinton.
Of course, I then learned, and still am learning, that Trumpism, a wing of Republicanism that I hadn’t even paid much attention to until 2015, isn’t motivated by or even much interested in the classic Republican Party virtues that Frum remembered then and now. We can list them: moral rectitude, reverence for the Constitution, advancing freedom and democracy abroad, personal responsibility, rule of law. MAGA and Trump have trashed every one of those virtues, just as they trashed the halls of the Capitol building in January 2021.
The MAGA platform is built on a different foundation. Its pillars include owning the libs; being able to make racist jokes in public (I seriously believe this motivates certain MAGAfolk as much as anything); evaluating the deservingness of other people's interests and identities and then crushing the people they find undeserving; and allying themselves with authoritarian bullies, in hopes that by so doing they themselves might soak up those bullies’ social and maybe economic power.
It’s a weird platform, but whatever.
I think the Trumpists’ time is done. It’s over.
What I think will happen: this is where I make a foolish prediction
OK, readers, here it is:
I think Kamala Harris is going to win the 2024 presidential election, and I think she will do so by a bigger margin than the pundits expect and the polls foretell.
In this crazy age, “winning the presidential election” probably needs to be qualified. By that phrase, I mean that voters will cast legal and proper votes such that Kamala Harris receives votes exceeding Donald Trump’s votes in states whose total electoral votes meet or exceed 270.
I have thought Kamala would win since she entered the race. I should acknowledge that I also always thought Joe Biden would beat Trump, despite the polling and popularity deficit Biden faced in the spring and summer. I think Harris has increased the likelihood of a Trump loss. Ergo: I think she will win.
Now I shall knock on wood with three firm raps to counteract the jinx I may have just placed on the Harris campaign. OK, knocking complete.
How I think it might break down
As long as I’m speculating, I might as well say how I think the election will break down. These guesses are all just the off-the-rocker suppositions of an American citizen who is certainly biased in Harris’s favor, but who also pays a lot of attention to American politics. But you knew that.
I think she'll win the three Big Ten blue wall swing states (MI, WI, PA). That alone should get her to 270 electoral votes.
She'll nab at least one of Georgia or North Carolina and probably both.
She may grab a surprise state or two. I think she could pick up one or more of Florida, Texas, Iowa, or Kansas. I’ll say Florida.
I'm less optimistic about Arizona and Nevada, for no reason other than vibes.
I easily imagine her winning north of 300 electoral votes. 320ish electoral votes for Harris-Walz seems like a reasonable guess.
I know I am just setting myself up to be wrong, but I like to write these things down so I later I can remember what I really thought. What the heck, I’ll even share my own speculative electoral map:
Why I think Harris will win and Trump will lose
The polls and the aggregations performed by professional statisticians and analysts suggest this election will be extremely close and that Trump may be the slight favorite. My prediction of a decisive Harris win may seem foolish. It may be foolish.
But here’s why I think Harris will win.
Harris has more enthusiasm among her voters than Trump has among his. Though enthusiasm isn't math, the enthusiasm gap will keep a few likely Trump voters home while bringing out some less likely Harris voters.
That's how a 100-person representative sample that breaks down as “48 Trump / 48 Harris / 4 other or undecided” turns into something like a “52 Harris / 45 Trump / 3 other” reality. Repeat that 100 voter scenario across the nation and it means a decisive victory for Harris-Walz.Trump is a weak man and a historically unlikable human being who is managing to get weaker and less likable by the day. Likability matters in elections.
Since Trump lost four years ago, he has done nothing to gain voters, and a lot to lose voters. Just think of what he’s done since Americans last saw his name on a ballot in November 2020:
Tried to overturn the 2020 result through a fake electors scheme.
Pressured the Georgia Secretary of State to “find” enough votes to change that state’s result.
Lost 63 of 64 court challenges to election results.
Assembled a violent mob to disrupt a congressional proceeding, defile the US Capitol, and defy the will of the people.
Grinned and tweeted while that mob overran the Capitol. Seemed ok with his VP being murdered by that mob.
Refused to even show up to Biden’s inauguration.
Was impeached again, with bipartisan support for his conviction.
Stole classified documents and stashed them in the bathroom at his beach club.
Was found guilty of 34 felonies in a case of election interference involving secret payments to a porn star made in an effort to sway the 2016 election.
Was found by a court to be liable for actually raping a woman. (How this doesn’t cause all Americans to reject him stuns me.)
I go through that list and I ask: what voter's mind has changed in Trump’s favor since 2020?
In nearly every midterm and special election since 2020, the Trumpists have underperformed projections, including in places where they have historically done well, like Kansas.
Trump keeps saying untrue things that indicate he thinks his voters are stupid. A very partial list: Reproductive rights advocates murder babies after they’re born. Kamala Harris and Joe Biden stole 1 billion dollars from FEMA to pay illegal immigrants to vote for them. Trump really won Minnesota in 2020. Haitian immigrants are eating pets. The Congo is emptying its jails into the USA. I could go on.
He says these outlandish things without explaining how he knows they happened. I guess he hopes people will just believe him. But if he thinks people will just believe his lies, he has to think those people are stupid, doesn’t he? And I think people, including Republicans, don’t like being thought of as stupid by candidates.Speaking of Republicans: I think there’s going to be a significant crossover vote, where Republicans vote for Harris. Many Republicans are smart and patriotic and thoughtful people. Frum’s articles, the Cheneys’ example, and the zillions of Trump administration officials who have warned against voting for him will have an effect. Far more Republicans will vote for Harris than Democrats will vote for Trump. Pollsters may not be capturing this.
Women voters are especially fired up this year. They are leading the charge and dominating the electorate, for a variety of reasons, notably reproductive rights. A nationwide motivated force of women voters is a really good thing for Harris, and a really bad thing for Trump. Women will win the election for Harris. Those women include my wife, my mom, my sisters, my daughters, my mother-in-law, and my sisters-in-law. Thanks in advance, ladies.
Hold on: I need to go knock on wood again. Three firm raps. OK, jinx thwarted.
A few other predictions
I think the victor may not be formally declared on the night of Tuesday, Nov 5, though we will have a pretty good idea of Harris’s victory. Let’s remember that various states, including the critical state of Pennsylvania, don’t count their votes quickly. These state governments could change this, but they don’t. But this is all just the counting. The counting is not the contest.
Despite this, I think pundits on Tuesday night will again fall into the trap of describing the counting as the contest, using phrases like “has fallen behind,” or “needs to hold this lead” while results come in. They’ll say this even though the votes have been cast, and the tallying and reporting is just an accounting chore to determine a thing that has already happened. Pretending that the counting is the contest is dangerous and contrary to democratic foundations. They’ll do this anyway. I wish they wouldn’t.
I think Trump will identify a moment when more votes have been counted for him and will declare that the counting should stop then. He will do this even if demographics and geography suggest that the remaining uncounted votes don’t favor him. He did this exact thing in 2020. It’s a terrible thing to do, but he will do it. His red hats will love when he does this.
I think Trump may at some point in the next few weeks boast that he “doesn’t concede,” like it’s a virtue. He did this in 2020. I think he thought that saying this seems resolute and strong. But in fact this boast weakens his claims that he actually won. It is like a simple logic puzzle. You meet a creature who brags that he will never admit losing. Then he says that he didn’t lose. Can you know if he actually won or lost?
I think the weeks and months that follow could be bitterly divisive. That’s a subject for future essays.
So that’s my prediction. But I’m just a random dope. What does the wise JOHR readership think? Whether you favor Trump or Harris, which candidate do you think will win, and why?
And what do you do to counteract jinxes?
Knock Knock Knock.
Eagle Bringing Cup to Psyche, Benjamin West, 1802. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
Giving 3 solid knocks
Great stuff! Let’s go!